Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 33.163363 35.717399 38.489159 41.741939 45.482611 49.684442 54.811683
2025-06-08 28.785433 32.072795 35.858161 40.608728 46.515680 53.770117 63.611597
2025-06-15 27.200255 31.051521 35.682569 41.800757 49.903089 60.645817 76.724364
2025-06-22 25.474753 29.575424 34.659210 41.631708 51.317891 64.970700 87.194973
2025-06-29 23.886049 28.081422 33.403853 40.918278 51.763911 67.849022 96.044999
2025-07-06 22.390083 26.570169 31.965883 39.754874 51.339404 69.245399 102.681996
2025-07-13 21.953321 26.386026 32.245745 40.972199 54.524359 76.805998 122.798820
2025-07-20 21.430224 26.036177 32.249961 41.758568 57.110054 83.854136 144.923935
2025-07-27 20.903998 25.638248 32.141226 42.339651 59.408851 90.855666 170.616584
2025-08-03 20.206585 24.957829 31.572818 42.142526 60.336419 95.402461 192.807905
2025-08-10 19.424244 24.115798 30.713099 41.402758 60.199937 97.730837 210.159325
2025-08-17 18.697847 23.318080 29.871670 40.621556 59.887509 99.614181 227.588722
2025-08-24 18.009296 22.564237 29.084022 39.917713 59.732749 102.059428 250.381571
2025-08-31 17.279697 21.724005 28.127904 38.871452 58.823530 102.611489 266.870961
2025-09-07 17.135323 21.721771 28.438891 39.978297 62.248696 114.700276 353.894163
2025-09-14 16.703945 21.277390 28.039641 39.821399 63.096902 120.418977 420.913408
2025-09-21 16.188068 20.687096 27.382133 39.158854 62.801417 122.894562 473.739381
2025-09-28 15.611304 19.986428 26.520709 38.077216 61.492281 122.112285 500.512597
2025-10-05 15.548590 20.051237 26.874188 39.208949 65.164678 137.829096 766.976831
2025-10-12 15.402214 19.981748 27.005189 39.939151 68.059276 152.587604 1228.140426
2025-10-19 15.224300 19.855768 27.035231 40.478293 70.597234 167.581464 2232.017749
2025-10-26 14.918662 19.521385 26.704160 40.295438 71.340311 176.014555 3834.886197
2025-11-02 14.535509 19.054975 26.134207 39.608840 70.726660 178.498178 5792.042581